Goff Heating Oil Market Price Information
Heating Oil Price and Oil Market Information May 2022
Brent Crude Dated ($ per Barrel)
Price at Start of Month: $106.07 Price at End of Month: $124.45
Highest Price in Month: $124.45 Lowest Price in Month: $103.93
Pound £ to US Dollar Rate $ Exchange Rate FT:
Start of Month: 1.2511 End of Month: 1.2603
Kerosene (Heating Oil) Cargo Price $ per tonne
Start of Month: $1340.00 End of Month: $1350.75
Highest Price in Month: $1360.00 Lowest Price in Month: $1164.25
Resulting in a Heating Oil Price (Pence Per Litre) Monthly range: 13.29 ppl
Market Commentary on the Newsfeeds:
The focus on the market commentary this month is “the impact of the war beyond oil”:
Global Supply Chains Will Never Be “Normal” Again
*The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on global supply chains has changed the way the world approaches trade.
*Supply chains will likely remain under constant threat of disruption over the next decade.
*Tightening supplies, high energy costs, and growing geopolitical risks are forcing countries to develop new technology to help mitigate supply chain challenges.
The conventional wisdom at this time is that most of the world has moved on from the pandemic (except for China); therefore, supply chains will return to “normal.” Unfortunately, this is not the case. The world has permanently changed and supply chains are going to face continuing challenges for decades to come. Among those challenges are:
Supply chains will remain under constant threat of disruption for the next decade
Supply chains operate best when the world is peaceful and stable
A smoothly running supply chain requires “buffer stock,” which is challenging with declining population demographics
There is a conflict between environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals and supply chains optimized for cost and speed. If we prioritize ESG, we will need to contend with supply chain risks
Supply chain technology will become the big venture capital category winner as companies continue to make investments in technologies that can help them mitigate their supply chain challenges
In a world faced with the prospect of tightening supplies, higher energy costs, heightened geopolitical risk, and strained transportation networks, advanced supply chain technologies will become mission-critical for many more companies.
Supply chains benefit from times of peace
Anyone that has been a part of the supply chain industry can attest to the fact that supply chains have always been subject to disruptions. Natural disasters, terrorism, economic cycles, and capacity shortages have created challenges since the beginning of trade.
Since the end of the Cold War, global supply chains have benefited from peaceful trade between developed and developing countries. Many poorer and less developed countries that were previously ruled by Communist or autocratic regimes took advantage of new markets in the developed world and used global trade to move beyond subsistence economies to prosperous ones. Some of these countries developed into capitalistic and democratic countries, while other governments exploited the free market system to solely benefit those already in power, and became wealthy and powerful enough to threaten the very system that enabled their ascension.
The Eastern European countries that were formerly part of the Soviet bloc are examples of the countries that embraced capitalism and shifted toward democracy, while China did the opposite.
Labour is key in supply chains
The arbitrage between the developed and developing countries has been massive. The cost of producing goods in countries with cheap labor, lax environmental and labor regulations, and little regard for sustainable natural resources has enabled the world to enjoy unprecedented prosperity and peace.
Because the goods produced in these parts of the world were so cheap, it made sense that they would be produced in excess. This buffer stock kept inflation in check and provided supply chains with ample supplies that could fend off short-term fluctuations and disruptions. Think about how the cost of televisions and computing hardware has fallen over the past few decades, and how auto prices haven’t risen as significantly as the many improvements in product features and quality were made.
This all happened at a time when the United States was the only superpower and the only expectation that the U.S. had of other nations is that trade should be unobstructed.
Cheap labour is becoming scarcer, particularly in Asia. This is largely due to aging populations – the average age continues to increase and there are fewer people to work in these manufacturing jobs.
ESG requirements hamper the stability of supply chains
Companies have instituted ESG requirements that require disclosures and monitoring of how and where products have been sourced. This pressure means that goods that are produced in factories that don’t match Western standards for environmental controls and human rights may not be available to Western consumers. The factories that do produce goods that match Western standards will often be more expensive and therefore there will be less buffer stock in the system.
The same ESG standards also create challenges for commodity producers, as the cost of adhering to environmental and social disclosures makes it more expensive and less productive. It also discourages investment in the production of environmentally sensitive commodities – most obviously in energy.
Environmental concerns and regulations that have prevented exploration and production and killed pipeline projects are largely the reason that the world currently lacks sufficient energy resources to buffer against the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war.
In the previous three decades, supply chains have operated relatively smoothly because companies could source from around the world and not have to worry about global military conflict or autocratic regimes shutting down manufacturing. While international trade regulations were complicated to navigate, the world overall was trending toward larger, more open trading blocs – not just in North America, but in Europe and Asia as well.
As the United States has become more insular and has pulled back from being the world’s policeman, and China has started to flex its muscles and create a global competitor to the United States, the world has become far more unstable and less peaceful. This global friction is unlikely to go away. China desires to take Taiwan as its own, risking sending the world into a geopolitical crisis that is more dangerous than at any point since World War II.
Buffer stocks of products are far less likely in the future, as the cost of producing those items continues to rise. Cheap labour, offered by large populations of young people, is largely a thing of the past. This will make it more expensive for companies to produce buffer stock and far less likely that supply chains will enjoy the ability to absorb short-term shocks that are inherent to complex global networks.
Supply chain technology will be the big winner
Companies will look closer to home for product sourcing. They will prioritize production in countries that are far more stable and friendly to the United States. The Freedom Trade movement will drive supply chain professionals to prioritize production and sourcing in the Americas.
Latin America will become a big winner, as it benefits greatly from having direct land transportation networks with North America and seas that are well protected by the U.S. Navy.
The American South and Midwest will also see an acceleration in manufacturing and production, as they can offer predictable and resilient sourcing, without the geopolitical risks of foreign suppliers or the labor unions of the Rust Belt.
Automation, including robotics, will become more important. Nearshoring manufacturers will try to offset higher production costs with robotics and other automated production systems.
Supply chain market intelligence systems, a data category that monitors developments around supply and demand, will be critical for supply chain professionals who are trying to navigate increasingly complex and opaque markets. Materials and product supplies are no longer guaranteed, so the need for constantly refreshed data models that track the balance of supply and demand will be critical to the success of companies.
FreightWaves SONAR provides near real-time market intelligence information, which has seen explosive growth in recent months as shippers have realized that supply chains are not returning to normal and the need for high-frequency data is increasingly critical for success. Historical models no longer work – as the world becomes far less predictable, peaceful, and safe – and supply chains are far more exposed to supply and demand shocks.
By Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves
U.S. Secretary Of State Accuses Russia Of Using Food As A Weapon
Russia has been accused of ‘weaponizing’ food and holding grain for millions of people around the world hostage to “break the spirit of the Ukrainian people”.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a UN Security Council meeting called by the United States that the war has halted maritime trade in large areas of the Black Sea and made the region unsafe for navigation, trapping Ukrainian agricultural exports and jeopardising global food supplies.
Blinken said the meeting, which he chaired, was taking place “at a moment of unprecedented global hunger” fueled by climate change and Covid-19 “and made even worse by conflict”.
Since Russia’s invasion on February 24, he said, its naval operations have sought to control access to the northwestern Black Sea and the Sea of Azov and to block Ukrainian ports which the United States assesses to be “a deliberate effort” to block safe passage and shut down shipping.
“As a result of the Russian government’s actions, some 20 million tonnes of grain sit unused in Ukrainian silos as global food supplies dwindle, prices skyrocket, causing more around the world to experience food insecurity.”
-Anthony Blinken
Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia dismissed as “absolutely false” claims by the U.S. and Western nations “that we want to starve everyone to death and that only you and Ukraine allegedly care about how to save the lives of the country”.
“You assert that allegedly we are preventing agricultural products from being taken out of Ukraine by sea,” he said.
“However, the truth is that it is Ukraine and not Russia that has blocked 75 vessels from 17 states in the ports of Nikolaev, Kherson, Chernomorsk, Mariupol, Ochakov, Odesa and Yuzhniy and has mined the waterways.”
Nebenzia warned: “Unless this issue is resolved, we cannot speak of any opportunities to export Ukrainian grain by sea.”
By Zerohedge.com
UK Energy Bills Could Surge By Another 42% In October
UK Energy Bills Could Surge By Another 42% In October
The UK hasn’t seen the worst of its cost-of-living crisis as energy bills could soar by another 42% in less than six months’ time when the energy regulator will raise the so-called energy cap again.
The UK has an Energy Price Cap in place, which protects households from excessively high bills by capping the price that providers can pass on to them. But as the price cap was raised by 54% in April —because of the high energy prices in the six months prior to the decision for the increase made by energy market regulator Ofgem in February—households are increasingly struggling to pay their energy bills.
The cap is now at $2,461 (1,971 British pounds) a year, but is likely to rise in October to $3,496 (2,800 British pounds) a year, Ofgem’s chief executive officer Jonathan Brearley said today.
“We are only part-way through the price cap window but we are expecting a price cap in October in the region of 2,800 pounds,” Brearley told the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Committee in Parliament on Tuesday.
The expected rise in October would be a 42-percent jump compared to the current energy cap, which would additionally burden millions of UK consumers.
Soaring energy prices are hitting UK households and energy providers in a market that has realized that the cost-of-living crisis is not going away soon and will get even worse come next winter.
Skyrocketing gas and power prices since the autumn of 2021, pushed even higher by the Russian invasion of Ukraine early this year, have made paying the energy bills difficult for millions of Britons, while utilities are piling up losses and billions of pounds of unpaid bills.
In April, the situation grew worse when the so-called Energy Price Cap was raised by more than 50 percent, doubling the number of fuel-stressed households in the UK overnight.
The cost of living crisis “is going to get truly horrific” in October, when the twice-yearly-adjusted price cap is set to spike again, Keith Anderson, chief executive at one of the largest providers, ScottishPower, told a Parliament committee last month.
“We are seeing an uptick now, but it will get worse—a lot worse—without any further intervention, come October,” Chris O’Shea, CEO at British Gas owner Centrica, told the same committee.
By T Paraskova 24th May 2022
Additional Oil Market commentary & Market Data available from the BBC here: Market Data
The Office for National Statistics record the price of heating oil and publish monthly updates on the average delivered cost of a domestic delivery of 1000 litres of kerosene in the UK . The information held by the ONS is freely available online and can be found here: ONS Price of heating oil
Last month’s oil market report can be found here:
Heating Oil Price and Oil Market Information April 2022 - Goff Petroleum