The following update has been prepared using insights from leading industry experts at The Oil Market Journal to help explain the recent price movements many customers are seeing in the home heating oil market.
Recent developments in the Middle East have created significant volatility across global oil markets, particularly for refined fuel products such as heating oil.
One key product affected is jet kerosene. While commonly used as aviation fuel, it is also closely linked to heating oil markets in the UK and Ireland. Prices for jet kerosene have risen sharply in recent weeks, which is having a direct impact on heating oil prices.
Why Are Prices Rising So Quickly?
Since the start of 2026, prices for refined fuels have increased much faster than crude oil prices:
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Jet Kerosene: +119%
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Brent Crude Oil: +52%
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Diesel: +30%
More recently, between 25 February and 6 March, jet kerosene prices surged by over 87%, far outpacing other fuel markets.
Heating oil and jet fuel are produced from the same stage of the refining process. Because of this, when jet fuel prices spike, heating oil prices are typically pushed higher as well.
What’s Causing the Price Spike?
Several global factors are tightening supply and contributing to rising prices:
1. Disruption to Middle East Supply Routes
Some refined fuel shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted. This route is one of the most important global shipping lanes for fuel supplies.
2. Strong Demand for Jet Fuel
Air travel has rebounded strongly following the pandemic, leading to increased demand from airlines and significantly higher consumption of jet fuel.
3. Reduced Refining Capacity in Europe
Two UK refineries closed during 2025, reducing the region’s ability to produce refined fuels such as heating oil and jet fuel.
4. Lower Exports from Major Suppliers
China has limited refined fuel exports due to domestic supply concerns, while Indian refineries are facing tighter crude supply, further reducing global export availability.
Together, these factors are tightening the supply of refined fuels across Europe.
Why Crude Oil Prices Haven’t Risen as Much
While refined fuel prices have surged, crude oil prices have increased more gradually.
This is largely because:
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The United States and other OECD countries maintain large strategic crude oil reserves.
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These reserves can be released during supply disruptions to help stabilise the market.
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Global crude supply was already slightly oversupplied at the start of 2026.
However, refined products like heating oil depend on refinery output, which cannot increase as quickly.
Tight Supplies of Jet Fuel
One important market indicator traders monitor is “days of supply cover” — the number of days current fuel stocks could meet demand.
Recent figures show:
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Crude Oil: 43 days of supply
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Jet Fuel / Heating Oil: 24 days of supply
Lower stock levels mean jet fuel markets react much more quickly to supply disruptions, which is contributing to the recent price volatility.
What This Means for Heating Oil Customers
Because heating oil prices are closely linked to jet fuel markets, prices may remain highly volatile in the short term.
If your tank levels are running low, it may be worth ordering sooner rather than later to secure current pricing and ensure delivery availability.